Regardless of the fact I don’t see much changing whoever wins, it will be a lot closer than the exit polls are saying. It’s often said that people ultimately vote with their pocket when they put pen to paper in the polling station and McCain’s promise of lower taxes in difficult economic times may prove too hard for some to resist. A huge swath of central states will just vote stubbornly for the same party they’ve always voted and sad as it may be, some who may have considered switching to Democrat simply won’t this year because Obama is black.
Most amazing of all on TV I saw a young Hispanic voter say she’d vote for McCain “because he’s against abortion”. I can’t remember McCain making a big thing about abortion this election but it just goes to show that no matter how a government has performed, even young people still vote on the same old bizarre logic they’ve always voted on. If you look at it rationally, anyone would be mental to even consider voting Republican again after what they’ve done domestically and abroad over the past 8 years and yet the prognosis is it’s still going to be a very close result.
The most sensible piece of commentary I’ve read so far was by music producer Akon (never heard of him) in The Guardian today:
I really, really hope that Obama gets in but I don’t want to jinx him. It’s too early to say, because I don’t remember anybody voting for [George W] Bush’s second term, and he still won.
It’s a good point. When polled, many people are probably too ashamed to admit they will vote McCain but when it comes to the crunch, their pen accidentally slips on the voting paper.
The biggest problem for Americans though is that I don’t think they see a great deal of difference between the main candidates as in the last election. However, at least this the Democrats have offered concrete incentives such as a universal healthcare system and maybe that will give undecided voters at least something to hang onto as they go to the polls tonight.
PS This is an excellent interactive map of the election results (from none other than “fair and balanced” Fox news). Excellent because it’s one of the few mainstream media maps that will display results for independent parties as well.